Erik Schiessl vs Ilija Palavestra
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value backing Ilija Palavestra at 2.43 based on a 44% true-win estimate; this is a higher-risk play driven by limited data and market inefficiency.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability (44%) implies minimum fair odds of 2.273
- • Current away price 2.43 yields ~6.9% ROI per unit at our estimate
Pros
- + Current odds (2.43) exceed our required threshold (2.273), producing positive EV
- + Small-sample opponent profile increases upside variability and potential market mispricing
Cons
- - Very limited data on Palavestra (5 matches) makes probability estimate uncertain
- - No information provided on Erik Schiessl to justify a strong counter-argument; reliance on market inefficiency is riskier
Details
We assess value on Ilija Palavestra (away) versus market favorite Erik Schiessl. The market prices Schiessl at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) and Palavestra at 2.43 (implied ~41.1%). Palavestra's provided profile shows a very small sample (5 matches, 2-3 record) across clay and hard, which increases variance and the chance the market underestimates his upset probability in a single match. Given the uncertainty and limited data, we estimate Palavestra's true win probability at 44%. At the available price of 2.43 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 2.43 - 1 ≈ +0.069). We therefore recommend the away side because the current decimal price exceeds our minimum required decimal odds (2.273) for a 44% win probability. This is a higher-risk play driven primarily by limited data and market inefficiency rather than strong form-based evidence.
Key factors
- • Palavestra's sample is tiny (5 matches, 2-3) which increases outcome variance
- • Market favorite (home) priced at 1.52 may not fully account for small-sample uncertainty
- • Palavestra has experience on both clay and hard; mixed results but not zero upset potential