Erik Schiessl vs Luis Felipe Miguel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the favorite's price (1.78) is too short for our conservative 48% chance estimate — we'd need ~2.083 or higher to consider a bet.
Highlights
- • Miguel's limited recent record (4-2) provides insufficient certainty to justify taking the market line
- • Current odds do not exceed our minimum required price for positive expected value
Pros
- + Miguel has some recent wins and match experience recorded
- + Market prices are conventional and liquid (clear favorite), so future small price improvements are possible
Cons
- - Insufficient data on the opponent and uncertain surface reduces confidence in forming an edge
- - At 1.78 the expected ROI is negative versus our estimate (EV ≈ -14.6%)
Details
We find no positive value at the current prices. The market prices (Home 1.95 / Away 1.78) imply a slight edge to the away player; normalizing for book margin gives roughly a 52% chance for the 1.78 line. Based on the research we only have a small sample for Luis Felipe Miguel (4-2 across six recorded matches, mostly on clay) and no usable data for Erik Schiessl, plus an unknown surface/venue. Given the limited sample, mixed recent results and unknown matchup/surface advantage, we conservatively estimate Miguel's true win probability at 48%. At that probability the 1.78 price yields EV = 0.48*1.78 - 1 = -0.146 (negative). To be profitable we would need decimal odds >= 2.083. Therefore we recommend no bet: neither side offers positive expected value versus our conservative estimate.
Key factors
- • Very limited match sample for Luis Felipe Miguel (6 matches) and no usable data on Erik Schiessl
- • Recorded matches for Miguel are mainly on clay; surface for this fixture is unknown which raises uncertainty
- • Market margin and normalized implied probabilities leave no positive EV versus our conservative win-probability estimate