Estella Jaeger vs Suana Tucakovic

Highlights

• • Implied market probability (1.03) >> our estimated true probability (75%)
• • Minimum fair decimal odds for value: 1.333; current quote is well below that

Pros

• + Tucakovic is the clear market favorite, so the outcome is likely to favor her
• + Low variance outcome probabilities make the market tight — if priced correctly this would be an easy small-bet scenario

Cons

• - Current odds (1.03) are too short, producing negative EV versus our estimate
• - Limited public data on the opponent increases uncertainty; taking tiny returns on jam-packed markets is high risk for little reward

Details

We estimate Suana Tucakovic's true chance to win at about 75% based on the provided career record (10-21) and recent results that show multiple losses, balanced against the likely quality gap implied by the huge market favorite status. The market price for Tucakovic (1.03, implied probability ~97.1%) is far shorter than our estimate, producing a negative expected value. To find value we would need a decimal price of at least 1.333; the current 1.03 offers no value and yields a strongly negative ROI using our probability estimate, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Provided career record and recent form for Tucakovic (10-21; recent losses) indicating she is not near a 97% coinflip
• • Market price (1.03) implies ~97% win probability — far above our 75% estimate, creating negative EV
• • Lack of head-to-head or meaningful data on the home player increases uncertainty and argues against taking a tiny return on the favorite