Ethan Cook vs Marc Polmans
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Polmans is the logical favorite but 1.45 is too short for our ~62% estimate, and Cook’s 2.60 does not offer a profitable upside given his record and form.
Highlights
- • Market implies Polmans ~69%; our estimate ~62% → negative EV
- • Cook’s price would require >38.5% true win chance; his record suggests lower probability
Pros
- + Polmans’ larger match sample and higher win rate favor him in probability terms
- + Both players have recent hard-court matches so surface familiarity is not a major unknown
Cons
- - Market price for Polmans (1.45) is shorter than our fair odds, producing a negative expected value
- - Cook’s limited wins and small sample make him unlikely to justify the 2.60 price
Details
We compare the market prices to our read of the players from the supplied profiles. Marc Polmans has a stronger record (24-20 in 44 matches) and more hard-court experience than Ethan Cook (5-11 in 16 matches), so we estimate Polmans is the favorite. The market price for Polmans (1.45, implied 68.97%) is richer than our estimated true probability (~62%), producing a negative edge at current prices. Conversely, Ethan Cook’s price (2.60, implied 38.46%) would require Cook to be substantially better than his 5-11 profile and recent form to be profitable; we estimate his true win chance is well below the 38.5% break-even. Given those estimates, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted decimals, so we decline to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Polmans has a substantially larger sample and better overall win rate on hard courts
- • Cook has a small sample size and limited wins (5-11), reducing confidence in an upset
- • Both players show recent losses, so form slightly favors the more experienced Polmans but market odds overstate that edge