Highlights

• • Donnet strong season-level record and momentum
• • Current market odds imply ~87% chance, slightly above our 86% estimate

Pros

• + Clear form and record advantage for Donnet
• + Low variance outcome likely given matchup disparity

Cons

• - Market price is tight to our model and leaves no value
• - Limited granular match-level data (H2H, injuries) increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Etienne Donnet is the superior player based on career win-loss (31-16 vs 10-22), stronger recent form, and likely better consistency on clay/hard. The market price for Donnet (1.149) implies a win probability of ~0.870. Our calibrated true probability for Donnet is 0.86 (86%) after adjusting for sample size, surface familiarity and opponent form. At that probability the fair price would be 1.163 decimal (1 / 0.86). Using the available market quote (1.149) gives EV = 0.86 * 1.149 - 1 = -0.0119 (≈ -0.012), a small negative expected value, so no value bet at current prices. To be profitable we would need at least 1.163 or higher on Donnet.

Key factors

• • Donnet’s superior overall record and recent form (31-16 vs 10-22)
• • Both players have clay/hard experience, but Bilardo’s recent results are weaker
• • Market implies slightly higher win probability (87%) than our estimate (86%)