Etienne Donnet vs Remy Bertola

Highlights

• • Donnet's career win rate is notably higher than Bertola's
• • Current market odds imply a lower chance for Donnet than our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge in career win-rate supporting a higher true probability
• + Current decimal price (2.36) converts to positive expected value with our probability

Cons

• - Sparse head-to-head and messy recent-match details increase outcome variance
• - Market favoritism toward Bertola may reflect factors not fully captured in the provided data

Details

We find value backing Etienne Donnet at 2.36. Donnet's career win rate (30-16, ~65%) is materially higher than Remy Bertola's (45-33, ~58%) across a similar recent timeframe and both players have experience on clay and hard courts. The market strongly favors Bertola at 1.538 (implied ~65.0%), which implies Donnet's win chance is only ~42.4% (1/2.36 = 0.4237). We estimate Donnet's true chance closer to 48% based on his superior win rate and comparable surface experience, producing positive expected value versus the current price. There is uncertainty from limited head-to-head and noisy recent-match details, so we conservatively discount Donnet's raw career win rate when forming our probability, but still conclude the market underprices him.

Key factors

• • Donnet's higher career win rate (30-16 ≈ 65%) vs Bertola (45-33 ≈ 58%)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard courts; surface familiarity reduces material surface edge
• • Market-implied probability overweights Bertola (1.538 ⇒ ≈65%), creating value on Donnet at 2.36
• • Limited H2H and mixed recent-results data introduce variance; we discount extremes but still find value