Highlights

• • Book price for Donnet (2.65) implies ~37.7% — we estimate ~42.5%
• • Positive expected value ≈ 12.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available decimal odds
• + Donnet's stronger career W-L suggests higher baseline level than market implies

Cons

• - Limited granular recent-form data and no H2H available in the provided research
• - Smaller sample sizes and unknown ranking/conditioning details introduce variance

Details

We find value backing the home player, Etienne Donnet, at the current price. The market is pricing Donnet at 2.65 (implied win probability ~37.7%) while Justin Engel is a clear favorite at 1.46. Comparing careers and available form: Donnet has a superior career win rate (57-33, ~63%) versus Engel (56-55, ~50%), and both have recent matches at Cassis on hard court, so surface familiarity is similar. There are no injury flags in the provided research. Given Donnet's better overall winning profile and comparable recent Cassis form, we estimate Donnet's true win probability materially above the market-implied 37.7% — we estimate ~42.5% — which makes the 2.65 quote attractive. Using odds 2.65 for Donnet produces positive expected value (EV = 0.425 * 2.65 - 1 ≈ 0.126), so we recommend the home player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Donnet's substantially better career win-rate (57-33 vs 56-55)
• • Both players have recent matches at Cassis on hard court (similar surface exposure)
• • Market heavily favors Engel, creating a potential overlay on Donnet given available performance data