Etienne Donnet vs Leonardo Cattaneo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value play on Leonardo Cattaneo at 8.0 — our conservative estimated win probability (22%) implies the fair price is ~4.545, producing +0.76 EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability (12.5%) is far below our estimate (22%).
- • Even a conservative model shows substantial positive EV on the underdog at 8.0.
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between market price and our conservative true-probability estimate
- + We adjusted for small-sample noise to avoid overestimating the underdog's chance
Cons
- - Cattaneo's limited match count and recent losses add significant uncertainty to our estimate
- - Heavy favorite outcomes in tennis can be cold — losses for longshots remain common
Details
We find clear value on the away moneyline (Leonardo Cattaneo) at 8.0. The market-implied probability for the away price is 1/8.0 = 12.5%, while the heavy favorite price on Etienne Donnet (1.05) implies ~95.2% — a price that requires near certainty. Using only the provided player records, Donnet's career win rate (31-16) and Cattaneo's (5-11) produce a raw head-to-head expectation in Donnet's favor, but that simple comparison overstates certainty because it ignores sample-size imbalance and recent form differences. We apply mild Bayesian smoothing to the raw win rates to reduce small-sample noise ((wins+1)/(matches+2)), then combine them in a Bradley–Terry style comparison to derive a baseline match win probability for Cattaneo near ~33%. We then discount that baseline to account for Cattaneo's poor recent results and low-level match outcomes, landing on a conservative estimated true win probability for Cattaneo of 22%. At p = 22%, the fair decimal price is 1/0.22 = 4.545; the current market price of 8.0 is substantially higher, producing positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.22 * 8.0 - 1 = +0.76 (76% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend the away side because the quoted 8.0 meaningfully overstates Cattaneo's underdog probability relative to our conservative estimate.
Key factors
- • Market implies only 12.5% for the away side (odds 8.0) — large gap vs our estimate
- • Donnet has a substantially larger match sample and higher career win rate, but not near certainty
- • We applied Bayesian smoothing to win rates to reduce small-sample bias for Cattaneo
- • Recent form favors Donnet but does not lower Cattaneo's upset probability below ~22%
- • No injury or other disqualifying concerns reported in the provided data