Highlights

• • Away implied probability 58.3% vs our estimate 55%
• • EV at current away price ≈ -0.057 (loss on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Erjavec brings clear experience advantage to the pairing
• + Market moves and pricing appear efficient in this matchup

Cons

• - Both pairings include partners with limited recent success, increasing variance
• - Lack of detailed form data for Eudice Chong prevents spotting a potential underpriced upset

Details

We believe the market is correctly favoring Veronika Erjavec's side given Erjavec's heavy match experience and a roughly break-even career win rate, while her partner Zhibek Kulambayeva has limited / recent losing form similar to En Shuo Liang. Comparing profiles, Erjavec provides a clear experience edge that justifies a market-implied probability above our estimated true win probability for the away pair. At the quoted moneyline (Away 1.714, implied 58.34%) the price is too short relative to our fair estimate (~55%), so there is no positive expected value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Erjavec's large experience and modestly positive career win rate relative to both opponents' partners
• • Liang and Kulambayeva show similar limited recent records (10-21) indicating lower baseline doubles form
• • Market already prices the away pair above our fair probability (no overlay/value)