Highlights

• • Implied away chance 33.1% vs our estimate 41% — positive edge
• • EV at current odds: +0.238 (23.8% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear numeric edge between our probability and market price
• + All referenced players show similar modest records, reducing confidence in heavy favourite

Cons

• - Research lacks data on Eudice Chong, who could materially tilt the matchup in favour of the home pair
• - Small-sample and incomplete form information increases variance around our estimate

Details

Market prices imply the home pair has ~70.9% win probability (1/1.41) and the away pair ~33.1% (1/3.02). Our assessment assigns the away pair a substantially higher true probability (~41%) than the market (33.1%) because the available player profiles show similar modest records for Liang, Li and Yao (all 10-21) and recent downward form; there is no concrete evidence in the provided research that Eudice Chong is a decisive upgrade that justifies the heavy market favoritism for the home side. At our estimated 41% chance, the away price of 3.02 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.238 per 1 unit staked). We therefore recommend the away side as a value bet at the current quoted price, while noting the estimate is conservative given incomplete information on Chong.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (away 33.1%) is materially below our estimated chance (41%)
• • Available player records (Li, Yao, Liang) are similar/modest (10-21), offering no clear edge to the heavy favorite
• • Lack of evidence in provided research that Eudice Chong alone justifies >70% market probability