Eudice Chong/Liang En-shuo vs V. Erjavec/Z. Kulambayeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small-value bet on the home doubles pair at 1.98 driven by a conservative 52.5% win probability estimate; the edge is modest and comes with elevated uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability (home): 52.5%
- • Edge is small: EV ≈ +3.95% at current odds 1.98
Pros
- + Positive expected value at quoted market price
- + Clear threshold: minimum required odds 1.905, market offers 1.98
Cons
- - Small margin of value — sensitive to small changes in probability estimate
- - High uncertainty due to absence of match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H)
Details
We treat this match conservatively because no external form, injury, surface or head-to-head information is available. The market currently prices the away pair as the favorite (implied probability ~57.1% at 1.75) while the home pair is offered at 1.98 (implied ~50.5%). After applying a conservative model baseline (neutral prior) and slight adjustment away from the market's apparent favoritism, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 52.5%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.905, so the current market price of 1.98 represents a small positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side only because EV at the quoted 1.98 is positive (EV ≈ +0.0395 per 1 unit staked). This recommendation is cautious: the edge is small and uncertainty is elevated due to lack of match-specific data, so the signal should be treated as a modest-value play rather than a strong conviction.
Key factors
- • Market currently favors the away pair despite fairly close pricing
- • No available data on recent form, injuries, surface or H2H — we adopt a conservative neutral prior
- • Current home price (1.98) is above our fair-price threshold (≈1.905), producing a small positive EV