Highlights

• • Away players show clear poor form in supplied research (10-21 records and recent losses).
• • Current home price (1.27) is just above the break-even threshold for our estimate (1.25).

Pros

• + Small positive edge at current mainstream price (EV ~+1.6%).
• + Documented weakness of the away pairing in the provided research supports favoring the home team.

Cons

• - Edge is very small — vulnerable to market movement or missing information about the home pairing.
• - Limited dataset: research lacks direct information on the home duo, increasing uncertainty.

Details

We compare the bookmaker price (Home 1.27 implied ~78.7%) with our assessed chance for the home pair. The only concrete data available in research is on the away players (Yu-Yun Li and Xinxin Yao), who each show poor recent results (career records in research 10-21 and recent run of losses), suggesting a materially reduced win expectancy for the away team. There is no negative information in the supplied research about the home pairing to offset that. We therefore estimate the true win probability for the home team at 80.0%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied probability (78.7%) and produces a small positive expected value at the current decimal odds of 1.27.

Key factors

• • Away pairing (Yu-Yun Li and Xinxin Yao) documented in research with poor overall records (10-21) and a run of recent losses
• • Market-implied probability for the home side (1.27 -> ~78.7%) is only marginally lower than our assessed probability (80.0%), leaving a small edge
• • Lack of contrary information about the home pairing in provided research increases relative confidence versus documented weakness of the away pair