Highlights

• • Braga's 0-7 record and recent losses point to substantially lower true win probability than the market implies
• • Home at 2.40 requires only ~41.7% true probability to be fair; we estimate ~70%

Pros

• + Large gap between market-implied probability and our estimated probability for the home player
• + Braga's continuous losses provide a clear rationale for downgrading the favorite

Cons

• - Very limited information on Eugenio in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Braga's career (7 matches) can make probability estimates noisy

Details

We see a large market lean to Breno Braga at 1.52 (implied win prob ~65.8%) despite the provided performance data showing Braga is 0-7 in his recorded career and has lost recent matches on both clay and hard. That level of continued losing form suggests his true win probability is much lower than market pricing. With limited data on Eugenio Almeida Jr., the most defensible approach is to downgrade Braga's chance and assign Eugenio a significantly higher win probability than the market implies. Comparing our estimated probability (70%) for Eugenio to the market-implied probability for the home side (1/2.4 = 41.7%) indicates clear value on the home moneyline at 2.4. We therefore recommend betting Eugenio at current prices because EV > 0.

Key factors

• • Breno Braga recorded 0-7 in provided career data and recent match losses
• • Market strongly favors Braga (1.52) despite his poor recorded form
• • No contradicting data on Eugenio in provided research, creating opportunity vs market mispricing