Highlights

• • Implied home probability at 7.0 is only ~14.3% — likely an underestimation
• • Conservative estimated true probability (35%) produces large positive EV

Pros

• + Very large edge between our estimated probability and the market price
• + No conflicting injury or form evidence in the provided research to justify the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Research dataset is sparse and duplicated — hidden info (last-minute injury, entry error, or player withdrawal) could explain the market skew
• - Extreme prices can be the result of bookmaker data errors or very thin markets that may be corrected or voided

Details

We see a clear pricing anomaly: the market prices Natsuki Yoshimoto at 1.07 (implied win probability ~93.5%) and Eunyeong Park at 7.00 (implied ~14.3%). The available player data show nearly identical records (both 10-21 over the same span) and similar recent form with no injury flags or surface specialization indicated. Given parity in the research, a near-coinflip or at least a materially higher upset probability for Park is far more plausible than 14.3%. Conservatively estimating Park's true win probability at 35% (reflecting comparable ability, no reported injuries, and normal match variance), the home price of 7.0 offers strong value. At that estimate the expected value (ROI) on a 1-unit stake is EV = 0.35 * 7.0 - 1 = 1.45 (145% ROI). We therefore recommend the home moneyline only because current odds imply an unrealistically low upset chance; if the market corrects or additional information (injury/H2H) appears, value may disappear.

Key factors

• • Market shows extreme skew toward away (1.07) that is inconsistent with both players' identical 10-21 records
• • Recent-form snippets provided show losses for both players; no injuries or surface advantage reported
• • A reasonable upset probability (we estimate ~35%) is far above the implied 14.3% for Park at 7.0, creating value