Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the home player (~87.7%) appears unjustified by the available data
• • If true win probability is ~50%, the away selection offers a very large positive EV

Pros

• + Large positive theoretical ROI at the current away price
• + Decision is driven by symmetric player data and lack of contradicting info

Cons

• - Research is limited and duplicated; uncertainty remains without surface/H2H/injury specifics
• - Bookmaker may have additional information not present in the provided sources, so risk of market correctness remains

Details

The available data shows virtually identical career records and recent form for both players, with no clear surface or injury advantage for the home player. The market has heavily overpriced Eunyeong Park at 1.14 (implied ~87.7%) while Soo Ha Jang is available at 5.25 (implied ~19.0%). Given symmetric profiles and no evidence supporting such a lopsided true probability, we estimate the match roughly even (true win probability for Soo Ha Jang ~50%). At that probability the away price 5.25 offers substantial value (EV = 0.5*5.25 - 1 = 1.625). We therefore recommend backing the away player because the market-implied price is far below a reasonable estimated probability based on the research provided.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data, implying a near-even matchup
• • Market is heavily favoring the home player (1.14) without supporting evidence in the research, creating apparent value on the underdog
• • No injury, surface, or head-to-head information in the provided sources to justify the wide market gap