Highlights

• • Players are effectively matched on record and recent results
• • Current home price (2.55) exceeds our min fair odds (2.222)

Pros

• + Clear pricing inefficiency versus estimated true probability
• + No reported injuries or clear matchup disadvantage for the home player

Cons

• - High uncertainty: identical profiles and no H2H or contextual data to differentiate players
• - Recent form for both is weak, increasing variance and upset risk

Details

We estimate Eva Maria Ionescu is considerably closer in level to Lia Karatancheva than the market implies. Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and recent form (consecutive losses), with no injury flags or clear surface advantage shown in the data. The market decimal for the away player (1.444) implies an away win probability of ~69.3% while the home price of 2.55 implies ~39.2% for Ionescu. Given the parity in records, surfaces played, and recent results, we place Ionescu's true win probability at ~45%. At that probability the fair price is 2.222; the current 2.55 offers positive expected value. Therefore we recommend backing the home player at 2.55 as a value play. We note elevated uncertainty due to limited differentiating information (no H2H, identical profiles), so downside variance remains significant.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21)
• • No injury reports or surface advantage in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors away (1.444) creating value on home at 2.55 given estimated parity