Eva Marie Voracek vs Anne Schaefer

Highlights

• • Market implies ~62.9% for home; our estimate is ~53%.
• • Required fair decimal odds to back home are ~1.887, above the current 1.588.

Pros

• + Home is listed as favorite, so the market perceives some edge (could be correct if unseen data exists).
• + Both players are active on the same surfaces, limiting surface-driven surprises.

Cons

• - Provided data shows very similar performance levels — no clear edge to justify the favorite price.
• - Negative expected value at current odds (EV ≈ -0.158) makes a wager unprofitable per our model.

Details

We find no value backing the home favorite at the available price. Market-implied probability for Eva Marie Voracek at 1.588 is ~62.9%, but the player profiles and recent form show both competitors have very similar records (around 10-22 overall) and comparable recent results on hard and clay. There is no H2H advantage, no reported injury edge, and nothing in the provided data to justify the large market gap. Our estimated true probability for the home player is 53%, which implies a fair price of ~1.887 decimal — well above the offered 1.588. At the current quoted price the expected value is negative, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form (around 10 wins, 21-22 losses).
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage is present in the provided data to justify a large market split.
• • Market price implies a ~62.9% chance for the home; our assessment is substantially lower (~53%).