Highlights

• • Research shows similar win-loss records and surfaces played for both players
• • Current home price (2.35) exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.222)

Pros

• + Market appears to over-favor the away player despite comparable profiles
• + Positive expected value at the publicly available home price

Cons

• - Small edge and limited data; estimates sensitive to small probability shifts
• - Both players show weak recent form, increasing variance and risk

Details

We view the market price for Arantxa Rus (1.57) as implying a clear favorite, but the available player profiles show nearly identical recent records, surfaces played, and weak form for both players. Using the current moneyline (home 2.35), the market-implied probability for Eva Vedder is about 42.6% (1/2.35). Given parity in the provided research (same career span, similar W-L and surface history) we estimate Vedder's true win probability to be higher than the raw market-implied number at 45%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.222; the offered 2.35 therefore contains value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.45 * 2.35 - 1 = 0.0575 (≈5.8% ROI). We use the quoted home odds of 2.35 for the EV calculation. Caveats: the dataset is limited, recent form is poor for both players, and there is no H2H or explicit surface-advantage data in the research, so we remain conservative with our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form in the provided profiles
• • Both have experience on clay and hard courts per the research, reducing a surface edge
• • Market favors Rus substantially, creating potential value on Vedder given parity