Highlights

• • Market-implied Vedder probability (after vig) ~40%; our estimate 45%
• • Required odds to break even on our estimate = 2.222; current 2.35 provides ~5.8% ROI

Pros

• + Current price (2.35) exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.222)
• + No injuries or surface disadvantages noted in the supplied data

Cons

• - Both players show weak overall records (10-21), increasing match variability
• - Research is limited and lacks detailed head-to-head or recent form depth

Details

We see both players with nearly identical recent profiles in the provided research (10-21 records, experience on clay and hard), yet the market prices Eva Vedder as a clear underdog at 2.35 while Arantxa Rus is 1.57. The raw market-implied probability for Vedder is 1/2.35 = 42.6% (and ~40.1% after removing bookmaker margin using both prices). Given the identical documented records and no injury or surface disadvantage shown in the research, we judge Vedder's true win probability to be higher (about 45%). At that estimate Vedder represents value versus the market: our required break-even decimal odds for that probability is 2.222, and the current 2.35 exceeds that threshold. Using the quoted price 2.35, EV = 0.45*2.35 - 1 = +0.058 (≈5.8% ROI), so backing the home player is a positive expected value play based on the supplied data and odds.

Key factors

• • Research shows both players with identical documented records (10-21) indicating similar current level
• • Both have experience on clay and hard per the profiles, so no clear surface edge in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability for Vedder (~40% after margin) is below our estimated true probability (45%), creating value