Eva Vedder vs Katherine Sebov

Highlights

• • Market odds: Vedder 1.909, Sebov 1.893 (near-even, ~5% overround)
• • Our estimated win probability: 50.0% → fair price 2.00; current prices offer negative EV

Pros

• + Match appears evenly balanced which keeps model estimate simple and conservative
• + No conflicting injury or surface advantage reported in the research

Cons

• - Both players have modest win-loss records and limited helpful recent-form differentiation
• - Current market prices are slightly shorter than break-even (no profitable edge)

Details

We see a near-even market on this matchup (home 1.909, away 1.893), but the available research shows essentially identical profiles for Eva Vedder and Katherine Sebov (matching career span, similar 10-21 records, and no decisive edge in recent results). The market-implied probabilities are roughly 52.4% for Vedder (1/1.909) and 52.8% for Sebov (1/1.893), which sum to an overround of ~5%. Given the parity in form and no clear surface or head-to-head advantage in the provided data, our best-estimate true win probability is 50.0% for either player. At p = 0.50 the fair decimal price is 2.000; current prices (~1.90) are below that threshold and produce negative expected value (EV = p*odds - 1). Concretely, using the best available market quote (home 1.909) EV = 0.50 * 1.909 - 1 = -0.046 (≈ -4.6% ROI). Because EV is negative at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent-form snapshots in the provided research
• • Market prices are essentially even but sit below our fair price (2.000) given a 50% estimated probability
• • No clear surface or injury information in the research to tilt probability; small bookmaker overround further reduces value