Highlights

• • Market implies home win probability ~84.8% despite near-identical player records
• • At our 43% estimate, the away side returns EV ≈ +0.828 per unit staked at 4.25

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied market probability and our estimate creates substantial positive EV
• + No researched injury/surface/H2H reason to justify the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Estimation uncertainty — limited data and no direct H2H increases model risk
• - Market odds may reflect information not present in the provided research (late scratches, conditions, etc.)

Details

We find clear value on Ines Murta (away). The market prices Eva Guerrero Alvarez as a near lock (1.179 implied ~84.8%), but the available performance data show both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on clay/hard — there is no evidence in the provided research to justify an 85% win probability for the home. Conservatively estimating Murta's true win probability at 43% produces a large positive expected value vs the posted 4.25 decimal price. Absent injuries, surface advantage or head-to-head edge in the research, the extreme market skew to the home side appears unjustified and creates a profitable value opportunity on the away player.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data
• • Market implies an implausibly high probability for the home (≈84.8%) with no supporting performance/injury data
• • No reported injuries, clear surface advantage, or H2H edge in the research that would justify the heavy favorite