Eva Guerrero Alvarez vs Yana Morderger

Highlights

• • Home implied probability ≈ 95% (market) vs our estimate ~56%
• • Away market quote (11.43) appears to be an outlier and should be verified before acting

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids exploiting probable data anomalies or illiquid markets
• + Assessment based on comparable player profiles and recent form

Cons

• - If the extreme away price is real and tradable, we forgo a mathematically large EV opportunity
• - Limited depth of supplied data prevents a high-confidence model-based edge

Details

The market prices (Home 1.05 / Away 11.43) imply an implausibly extreme split (home ~95%, away ~8.8%). Our assessment based on the supplied player profiles (nearly identical career span, records, surfaces and recent form) does not support such a one-sided probability. We estimate the home player’s true win probability at about 56% and the away player at about 44% — roughly even — which would imply fair decimal prices near 1.79 (home) and 2.27 (away). At those estimates the current home price (1.05) offers no value and the away price (11.43) looks like an extreme outlier rather than a tradable market opportunity. Given the absence of corroborating evidence (rank gap, injuries, or head-to-head that would justify such skew), we decline to recommend a bet. If the 11.43 away price were confirmed on major books and liquidity existed, the away side would mathematically offer large positive EV, but we treat this quote as likely erroneous/unavailable and therefore avoid staking into a probable data anomaly.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and surfaces in the supplied data (no clear edge).
• • Market prices imply an extreme imbalance inconsistent with the available player data.
• • No additional evidence (injury, ranking gap, H2H) provided to justify the heavy favorite line.