Highlights

• • Voracek 10-21 vs Ceschi 10-22 — records essentially level
• • Home implied probability (~92%) is far out of line with available data

Pros

• + Large upside: current away price (6.37) generates strong positive EV even on conservative probability
• + Research shows parity; no data-backed reason for the extreme favorite price

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no head-to-head or tournament-draw context in the provided research
• - Market may reflect late information or entry errors not present in our sources — risk of unseen factor

Details

We view Gloria Ceschi (away) as the only value play because the market price (6.37 decimal) implies only ~15.7% win probability while the on-file data shows both players have nearly identical career records (Voracek 10-21, Ceschi 10-22) and similar recent form on hard courts. There is no evidence in the provided research of a decisive quality gap, injury, or form swing that would justify the home 1.086 price (implied ~92.0%). Conservatively, we estimate the away true win probability at 30%; at that probability the fair odds would be ~3.333. Comparing that fair price to the available 6.37 gives a large positive expectation: EV = 0.30 * 6.37 - 1 = 0.911 per 1-unit stake. Given the extreme market skew and limited conflicting evidence in the research, backing the away at current prices represents clear value.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent hard-court losses in the research
• • Current market odds are heavily skewed toward the home player with no supporting evidence
• • No injuries or dominant form indicators in the provided data to justify the heavy favorite