Highlights

• • Giulio heavily favored by market (1.07) despite parity in records
• • Evan at 8.0 exceeds our fair-price threshold and offers meaningful positive EV

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current price (estimated +44% ROI)
• + Market inefficiency due to extreme favorite pricing

Cons

• - Underdog upset bets in tennis are high variance and can be swamped by small sample noise
• - Research lacks head-to-head details and full recent-form context, increasing uncertainty around the 18% estimate

Details

The market is pricing Giulio Zeppieri as a near certainty at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%) while Evan Zhu is available at 8.0 (implied ~12.5%). From the available player profiles both men have similar Challenger-level records in 2024–2025 (Zhu 31-25, Zeppieri 28-20) and both have recent matches on comparable surfaces. Zeppieri’s market-heavy favorite status looks like an overreaction given the parity in records and lack of clear injury or matchup evidence making him a >90% shot. We estimate Evan’s true chance at about 18% (0.18) versus the market 12.5%, which creates value on the 8.0 price. EV calculation used: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.18 * 8.0 - 1 = +0.44 (44% ROI on a 1-unit stake). By contrast, backing Zeppieri at 1.07 offers negative EV under our probability estimate (0.82 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.123). We therefore recommend the underdog (home) only because the current price materially exceeds our fair odds.

Key factors

• • Market overreaction: 1.07 implies near-certainty that is not supported by comparable records
• • Comparable career records and multi-surface experience for both players reduce the chance of a foregone result
• • No clear injury or matchup information that would justify such an extreme market price for the favorite