Highlights

• • Sallay is more recently active on hard courts than Kypriotis
• • Current odds (1.72) are slightly above our fair price (~1.653), creating a small positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ +4.2%)
• + Sallay's recent hard-court match suggests better immediate match readiness

Cons

• - Both players have no wins in the supplied records — sample sizes are tiny and estimates are noisy
• - Edge is small; result variance and unexpected factors (fitness, conditions) could overturn value

Details

We view Peter Sallay (away) as the more likely winner despite both players having no recorded wins in the provided samples. Sallay has played more matches (5 vs 2) and has a very recent hard-court outing in late August 2025, while Kypriotis' last recorded match was March 2025 — a significant gap that raises match-fitness concerns. The market prices Sallay at 1.72 (implied 58.1%). Based on recency, surface exposure, and experience advantage, we estimate Sallay's true win probability at ~60.5%, which implies a fair price of ~1.653. At the available 1.72, the position shows a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.042 per unit). Given the very small sample sizes and overall inexperience of both players, the edge is modest but present at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Sallay has more recent match activity on hard (late Aug 2025) vs Kypriotis last recorded play in Mar 2025
• • Sallay has greater match sample (5 matches) compared with Kypriotis (2 matches)
• • Both players are inexperienced with no wins in the provided records, increasing volatility and model uncertainty