Highlights

• • Current odds 2.40 vs our fair odds ~2.273
• • Estimated EV ~+5.6% per unit stake

Pros

• + Price exceeds our conservative fair odds estimate
• + Home-player uplift and possible market favorite bias support the underdog view

Cons

• - No external data on recent form, surface preference, injuries or H2H — estimate is necessarily conservative
• - Edge is modest; variance in tennis matches can erase small advantages

Details

Market prices show Alicia Melosch as the clear favorite at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%), with Ewa Czapulak the underdog at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%). With no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we apply conservative adjustments: being the home player should provide a few percentage points benefit to Czapulak and markets often carry an overweight on clear favorites in lower-liquidity matches. Normalizing the market implies Czapulak ~38.8% true chance; we conservatively uplift that to 44% to reflect home advantage and potential market favorite bias. At 44% true probability the fair odds are ~2.273; the current offered 2.40 therefore contains value. Using EV = p*odds - 1, the calculated EV at current price is +0.056 (5.6% ROI per unit stake), which meets our value threshold while remaining modest and cautious given the lack of additional intel. We recommend a back of the home underdog only because the current price exceeds our conservative fair odds estimate; if additional information (injury, surface mismatch, strong form for Melosch) appears, this view should be re-assessed.

Key factors

• • Home advantage for Ewa Czapulak likely increases true win probability by a few percentage points
• • Market favorite bias and overround can make clear favorites slightly overvalued in low-information matches
• • No injury/form/H2H data available — we apply conservative adjustments rather than optimistic projections