Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (home) ≈ 87.1% vs our estimate ≈ 65%
• • Negative EV at current prices (-0.254 per 1 unit stake)

Pros

• + Lumsden has professional match experience and some wins on hard courts
• + Home/favored status in the market suggests bookmakers see a gap

Cons

• - Recent form shows multiple losses and inconsistency
• - Lack of information on the opponent prevents upward revision of Lumsden's probability to market levels

Details

We estimate Ewen Lumsden's true chance to win this ITF R1 match at roughly 65%. Lumsden's career record (26-20) and recent results in hard-court events show inconsistency and a number of recent losses; there is no opposing-player data provided to justify treating this as an overwhelming mismatch. The market price (home 1.148) implies a win probability of about 87.1% (1/1.148), which is materially higher than our 65% estimate. To be profitable at the current home price you would need to believe Lumsden's win probability is >87.1%; we do not. Calculation: our p = 0.65, market decimal = 1.148 -> EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.65 * 1.148 - 1 = -0.2538 (negative). Given the negative expected value at the quoted price and limited supporting evidence to push our probability near the market-implied level, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies 87.1% for home (1.148) which is much higher than our estimate
• • Lumsden's overall record (26-20) and recent losses indicate inconsistent form on hard courts
• • No data provided on Harry Thursfield or any injuries/H2H to justify a heavy-market favorite