Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability 62.1% vs our estimate 48%
• • EV for backing home at 1.61 is negative (~-22.7%) given our probability

Pros

• + Clear negative expected value for the home side at current price — avoid an obvious overprice
• + We remain conservative due to sparse data and avoid taking a potentially mispriced away bet without fuller information

Cons

• - Limited research (only partial profile for B. Jones) increases model uncertainty
• - If our estimate understates the away vulnerability, we may be missing a true value on the away side

Details

We estimate the home pairing F. Bass/B. Jones has roughly a 48% chance to win (0.48) given the limited data: B. Jones shows a poor recent record (10-21 career, recent losses), mixed surface experience, and no additional information on partner strength or opponents. The market prices the home side at 1.61 (implied probability ~62.1%), which is materially higher than our estimate; that pricing would produce a negative expected return for backing the home team. Conversely the away side at 2.20 (implied ~45.5%) would look attractive under our projection (away win ~52%), but the research set is too sparse and asymmetric (we only have partial data on one player) to confidently recommend taking the away at available prices. Therefore we decline to recommend a side — the market appears to misprice the matchup relative to our constrained estimate, but uncertainty is high and we will not stake on this line.

Key factors

• • B. Jones recent form and overall record are weak (10-21), suggesting reduced win expectancy
• • Market implies a 62.1% chance for home at 1.61 — materially higher than our 48% estimate
• • Research is incomplete (only partial data on one player); partner/opponent quality and surface specifics are unknown