Highlights

• • Market implies 84.0% chance; our conservative estimate is 90%
• • EV on current price: +0.071 (7.1% ROI per unit staked)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted odds
• + Low variance typical of heavy favorites (smaller payout, lower variance)

Cons

• - Recommendation relies on conservative assumptions due to no match-level research available
• - Short odds leave limited absolute profit per stake and risk remains of an upset

Details

The market prices the away pair at 1.19 (implied probability 84.0%). With no external injury or form details available, we apply a conservative model-based adjustment for a clear short-priced favorite in doubles and estimate the true win probability at 90.0%. At that probability the expected ROI on the 1.19 quote is positive (EV = 0.90 * 1.19 - 1 = +0.071). We therefore identify value on the away side because our estimated win probability exceeds the market-implied probability. We acknowledge higher uncertainty due to lack of specific match-level data and factor that into a cautious probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.19 = 84.0%) versus our conservative true probability (90%)
• • Short-priced favorites in doubles often reflect a clear quality gap — we conservatively up-weight the favorite
• • No available injury/form/H2H data increases uncertainty, so estimates are deliberately conservative