Highlights

• • Implied market probability ~79.4% vs our 82% estimate
• • Projected ROI ~3.3% on a 1-unit stake at current price

Pros

• + Away price (1.26) is slightly underestimating win likelihood relative to our model
• + Home pairing shows clear recent weaknesses (notably J. Leal) that weaken their chance

Cons

• - Limited doubles-specific public data and partner form for all four players increases uncertainty
• - Edge is small (EV ~3.3%), so variance and match-specific factors could easily negate it

Details

We believe the away pair (M. Yanguas Diez/J. Nieto) represents value at the quoted 1.26 decimal price. The implied probability of 1.26 is ~79.4%, but given the available intel — clay surface (which typically favors strong Spanish/Clay specialists), the clear negative recent form for J. Leal (poor results and low win rate this season) and no offsetting indicators of elite form from the home pairing — we estimate the true win probability for the away team at 82%. That produces a small positive edge versus the market price (0.82 * 1.26 - 1 = +0.033). We acknowledge limited data (no full doubles-specific form or partner quality for all four players), so our projection includes a conservative margin; still, the market understates the away side's chances enough to justify a value wager at 1.26.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.26 -> ~79.4%) vs our higher assessed probability (82%)
• • Home side includes J. Leal with weak recent form and losing record this season
• • Match on outdoor clay, likely favoring established clay-court specialists and local/Spanish pairs