F. Norin/T. Sramkova vs L. Luciano/S. Yuldasheva

Highlights

• • Away is market favorite at 1.55 but our conservative estimate (62%) still yields slightly negative EV
• • Home odds (2.33) do not reach the min required 2.633 for our 38% estimate, so also no value

Pros

• + Conservative, data-sparse approach reduces the risk of over-estimating edges
• + Clear threshold (min_required_decimal_odds) provided for future opportunities

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the estimated probabilities
• - If future information (injury, lineup, surface advantage) appears, the estimate could change materially

Details

We have no external data on form, H2H, surface preference, or injuries, so we adopt a conservative model. The market currently prices the away pair at 1.55 (implied ~64.5%) and the home pair at 2.33 (implied ~42.9%). After conservative adjustment for uncertainty, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 62.0% (0.62) and the home pair at 38.0% (0.38). At those probabilities the away side's expected value at the listed odds (1.55) is negative (EV = 0.62*1.55 - 1 = -0.039), and the home side is also negative (EV = 0.38*2.33 - 1 = -0.115). The current prices do not exceed our minimum required odds for value (away needs ≥1.613; home needs ≥2.633), so we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • No available data on recent form, surface, H2H or injuries — we use conservative priors
• • Market is favoring the away pair (1.55) and implies a higher win probability than our conservative estimate
• • Neither side's current price offers positive expected value versus our probability estimate