Highlights

• • Away implied win probability: ~60.2% (odds 1.66)
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 60.0% → no positive expected value

Pros

• + Market is consistent and shows a clear favorite, simplifying probability comparison
• + Small market margin; if additional favorable intel appears, value could emerge quickly

Cons

• - No independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H to justify moving above market probability
• - Edge is extremely small; wagering would be near-break-even or slightly negative

Details

We compared the market-implied probabilities (Home 1/2.12 = 47.2%, Away 1/1.66 = 60.2%) to a conservative estimated win probability for the market favorite (Away). With no external form, surface, injury or H2H data available, we conservatively estimate the Away pair's true win probability at 60.0%. At the quoted away price of 1.66 this produces a slightly negative expected return (EV = 0.60 * 1.66 - 1 ≈ -0.004), so there is no clear value to back either side. The market margin is small and the difference between implied and our conservative probability is negligible, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for Away (60.2%) is essentially in line with our conservative estimate (60.0%)
• • Small difference produces a negligible negative EV at current quoted odds