F. Andaloro/D. Augenti vs R. Perin/L. Potenza

Highlights

• • Estimated true prob for away team: 68% → fair odds ~1.471
• • Current odds (1.38) produce EV ≈ -0.062 (negative), so we do not recommend a bet

Pros

• + Clear market favorite — prices are stable and widely available
• + Conservative estimate reduces chance of overrating the favorite

Cons

• - No positive EV at quoted prices; betting would be expected loss
• - Lack of match-specific information increases uncertainty in the estimate

Details

We compare the market price (Away 1.38 / Home 2.85) to a conservative estimate of the away pair's true win probability. Given limited external info, we conservatively estimate the away team (R. Perin/L. Potenza) win probability at 68%. That implies a fair price of ~1.471 decimal. At the quoted 1.38 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.68 * 1.38 - 1 ≈ -0.062), so there is no positive-value side to recommend. The market implies a higher probability (~72.5%) than our conservative estimate, which removes value; the home side would require substantially better odds (≥2.85 -> still negative EV at our estimate) to be attractive. Given doubles variance and absence of match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H), we avoid recommending a stake.

Key factors

• • Market heavy favorite on away side (1.38) leaves small headroom for value
• • No match-specific data (surface, injuries, form, H2H) — we used conservative assumptions
• • Doubles outcomes are generally higher variance; margin/vig likely removes slim edges