Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability: 58.1%; our estimate: 62%
• • Min required decimal odds for value: 1.613; current away price 1.72 exceeds that

Pros

• + Current price (1.72) offers a measurable edge versus our conservative probability estimate
• + Home pairing contains a player with demonstrably poor recent form, supporting an away lean

Cons

• - Incomplete information on partners and H2H increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - Tournament-specific surface/conditions and potential late changes (injury/withdrawal) are unknown

Details

We estimate value on the away side (M. Bivol/P. Renard) because the market prices the match at Away 1.72 / Home 2.02 but the available player form data (notably B. Jones) indicates a meaningful tilt away from the home pairing. B. Jones' recent singles/doubles form is poor (10-21 career record with recent losses and only one win in his last ten matches), suggesting limited confidence in the Bass/Jones pairing's ability to win. With sparse data on partners and H2H, we conservatively project the away pairing's true win probability higher than the market-implied probability (market-implied away win probability = 1/1.72 = 58.14%). Our estimated true probability for the away team is 62%, which implies the fair decimal odds should be ~1.613; the current available price of 1.72 therefore offers positive expected value. We acknowledge uncertainty due to missing partner-specific form and surface specifics, so our probability is conservative rather than aggressive.

Key factors

• • B. Jones recent form and overall 10-21 career record suggests weakness on the home side
• • Market-implied probability for away (58.1%) is lower than our conservative estimated true probability (62%)
• • Limited data on doubles partners and H2H increases uncertainty; we use conservative margin in probability