F. Contreras Gomez/R. Marino vs G. Olmos/A. Sutjiadi

Highlights

• • Market implies a very strong favourite; overround ~6.4%
• • Conservative estimated upset chance (12%) is below break-even for the underdog

Pros

• + We use conservative estimates given the lack of returned research
• + Clear break-even thresholds calculated so bettors can compare alternative prices

Cons

• - No match-specific form/injury/H2H data available to refine probabilities
• - Higher variance in doubles and potential local factors increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices to conservative, research-limited probability estimates. The market implies the away team (Olmos/Sutjiadi) is ~88.5% to win (1/1.13) and the home pair (Contreras/Marino) ~17.9% (1/5.6), with an overround of ~6.4%. Given no external data returned and the match being doubles in Guadalajara (possible local factors but unknown), we adopt a conservative estimated true probability of 12% for the home pair to win. To be profitable on the home line (5.6) the true win probability must exceed 17.857% (1/5.6); our 12% estimate is well below that threshold, producing negative expected value. The favourite would need an implausibly high >88.5% true win probability to be +EV at 1.13; we assess the favourite’s true win probability as materially lower than that. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at current prices. We also account for the bookmaker margin (overround) and the elevated uncertainty due to lack of injury/form/H2H data, which increases variance and reduces confidence in any edge.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: away ~88.5%, home ~17.9% (overround ~6.4%)
• • No external research returned — we use conservative assumptions and higher uncertainty
• • Home pair would need >17.857% true win probability to be +EV at 5.6; we estimate 12%