F. Guerrero/J. Leal vs J. Lebron/F. Stupaczuk

Highlights

• • Market implies strong favorite (Away ~86%); we conservatively estimate Home ~12%
• • Home would need >8.33 decimal odds to be a value play

Pros

• + Large payout if the underdog wins (big decimal price)
• + J. Leal's available match experience could translate into surprise underdog outcomes in doubles

Cons

• - No doubles-specific data for partners; judgement is highly uncertain
• - Market price for favorite is short, indicating perceived dominance which we cannot overturn with the limited data

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 5.00, Away 1.16) to our realistic assessment based only on the provided research. The market implies a very strong probability for Lebron/Stupaczuk (~86%), but we lack any doubles-specific performance data for the four players and only have J. Leal's singles form (10-21 in recent play), which suggests limited upside for his pairing. Given the sparse evidence and the heavy favorite pricing, we cannot justify backing the underdog at 5.00 — our estimated true probability for the home pair winning (12%) implies required odds of ~8.333 to produce positive EV. At the quoted 5.00, the expected return is negative (EV = -0.40 per unit). Therefore we recommend no bet because the market price does not offer value relative to our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Only J. Leal's singles form is available (10-21); no doubles performance data for any pairing
• • Market heavily favors Lebron/Stupaczuk (1.16), implying ~86% win probability
• • Attributed upset probability for Guerrero/Leal is ~12%, meaning current home odds (5.00) are insufficient for positive EV