F. Hu/J. Xu vs A. Koshiishi/H. Sato

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (3.05) = ~32.8%; our conservative estimate = 30%
• • At current odds the home selection yields negative EV (-0.085)

Pros

• + Underdog price is moderately large which can be attractive if one had strong contrary data
• + Clear thresholds provided: need ≥3.333 on home to be +EV

Cons

• - No objective information on surface, form, or injuries to justify improving our probability estimate
• - Book margin reduces apparent value versus a fair market

Details

We compared the bookmaker prices to a conservative estimate of the true outcome probabilities. The market prices imply a ~32.8% chance for the home pair (3.05) and ~74.6% for the away pair (1.34) after simple inversion. Given we have no additional form, surface, H2H, or injury information, we adopt a conservative baseline that underdogs in comparable matches typically have roughly a 25–35% upset chance; we set the home pair's estimated true win probability at 30%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~3.333; the current price of 3.05 is too low to justify a value play. The favorite would need an implied true probability >74.63% to be profitable at 1.34, which we do not confidently assign without supporting data. Accounting for the bookmaker margin and uncertainty, neither side shows positive expected value at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 32.8%, away 74.6%) vs our conservative true estimate
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries, or head-to-head to justify deviation from conservative baseline
• • Bookmaker margin (~7.4%) increases threshold for finding value