F. Marozsan/Z. Piros vs A. Erler/L. Miedler
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the home pair at 2.95 based on a conservative 35% win probability estimate, producing a modest positive EV (~3.25%).
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (33.9%) slightly below our conservative estimate (35%)
- • Edge is small and driven by market skew to the favorite in an uncertain-information scenario
Pros
- + Modest positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Doubles volatility can favor underdog backs when markets overprice favorites
Cons
- - Very limited public information increases estimation risk
- - Edge is small—subject to quick market movement or new information
Details
We compared the market prices (Home 2.95, Away 1.36) to a conservative estimated win probability for the home pair. The market implies the away pair has ~73.5% chance while the home pair is priced at ~33.9%. Given the high variance of doubles, absence of concrete injury/form/H2H information, and typical market tightening around clear favorites, we cautiously estimate the home pair's true win probability at 35.0%. At that probability the home selection (2.95) yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.35 * 2.95 - 1 = 0.0325), so the home side represents slight value versus the available price. We remain conservative in our probability estimate because there are no external data points to widen the edge, and we highlight the uncertainty inherent in doubles markets.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors away at 1.36 (implied ~73.5%) while home price implies ~33.9%
- • Doubles matches have higher variance which can create underdog value
- • No available external data on form, surface or injuries increases uncertainty