Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.76 is ~56.8%, higher than our estimated 48% true chance
• • At current prices the home side yields EV ≈ -0.155 per unit staked

Pros

• + Home team favored by the market (shorter price) which could indicate slight on-paper edge
• + Match played on hard court, a surface Watt has matches on in his record

Cons

• - Watt's overall match record and recent form are weak (10-21), reducing confidence in a >56% win probability
• - No supporting data on partners or H2H to justify market skew toward the home side

Details

We estimate the market price (home 1.76, away 1.97) overstates the home pair's chances. The only concrete player data available shows J. Watt with a weak recent/small-career record (10-21) and limited success on the tour despite some hard-court appearances; there is no supporting information that his pairing with F. Reynolds materially closes that gap versus J. Jung/R. Stalder. Converting the market decimals gives an implied probability for the home side of ~56.8% (1/1.76), which is higher than our assessed realistic probability (~48%) given Watt's form and lack of additional positive indicators for the home team. At the available home price (1.76) EV = 0.48*1.76 - 1 = -0.155, so a bet on the home side is negative expectation. Likewise, the away price (1.97) requires a win probability >50.76% to be +EV, which we do not believe is justified with the current information. Therefore we do not find value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • J. Watt's limited and poor win-loss record (10-21) suggests below-market win probability
• • Match on outdoor hard court — Watt has played hard but recent results do not indicate form advantage
• • Market-implied home probability (~56.8%) exceeds our assessed probability, producing negative EV