FC Echallens RegionVSServette FC

Highlights

• • Implied market probability: ~59.9%
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 66.0% → positive EV

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ +0.102 per unit staked)
• + Reasonable margin between implied and estimated true probability

Cons

• - No match-specific sources (lineups/injuries/form) were available — increased uncertainty
• - Soccer variance and the possibility of draw scenarios not reflected in the two-way moneyline

Details

We find value on the away (Servette) moneyline. The current decimal price of 1.67 implies a win probability of ~59.9%. Given the clear quality gap we conservatively assume in favor of the away side and limited match-level uncertainty (no live/injury feeds returned), we estimate Servette's true win probability at 66.0%. At that probability the market underestimates the away chance and offers positive expected value. We are conservative in our projection because source data were not available, but even with a modest edge above the market-implied 59.9% the away line is attractive.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.67 = 59.9%) is below our conservative true-win estimate
• • Presumed quality gap between the two clubs (favoring the away team) increases away-win probability
• • No specific injury or lineup information available → we applied a conservative margin to our probability