Fabian Marozsan / Zsombor Piros vs Alexander Erler / Lucas Miedler
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Fabian Marozsan / Zsombor Piros at 3.87; our estimated win probability (33%) implies positive EV (~0.277) versus the market price, though uncertainty about the away pairing raises risk.
Highlights
- • Home implied chance 25.8% (3.87); we estimate ~33%
- • Positive EV at current home price: ~0.277 per unit staked
Pros
- + Piros' strong recent form and overall win rate lifts the pairing's realistic chances
- + Away pairing contains an under-documented player in the research, increasing market mispricing potential
Cons
- - No data provided for Alexander Erler in the research, a key unknown that could invalidate our edge
- - Doubles-specific chemistry and Davis Cup pressures are not detailed in the sources and could swing outcomes
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities (home 3.87 -> 25.8%, away 1.257 -> 79.6%) to our assessment. Zsombor Piros has a strong recent record (46-21) and recent hard-court results noted in the research; Fabian Marozsan is middling but pairs with Piros here, which materially improves the pairing versus judging Marozsan alone. Lucas Miedler's available sample is tiny and poor (1-3) in the research, and Alexander Erler's profile was not provided in the research, increasing uncertainty about the away pairing's true strength. Given that uncertainty and Piros' clear form advantage, we estimate the home pair's true win probability around 33%, which is meaningfully higher than the implied 25.8% from the current home price of 3.87. Using the provided current odds for the home side (3.87) yields positive expected value (EV = 0.33 * 3.87 - 1 ≈ 0.277), so the home side represents value at the quoted price. We remain cautious due to unknowns (Erler missing from research, lack of doubles-specific matchup/h2h), so the recommendation is made with medium risk.
Key factors
- • Zsombor Piros shows strong recent form and an overall 46-21 record in the provided data
- • Lucas Miedler's limited, poor sample (1-3) increases doubt about the away pairing's strength
- • Alexander Erler's profile/details were not in the research, raising uncertainty on the market's heavy favoritism
- • Market-implied probability for the home side (25.8%) appears low relative to Piros' form and the away-side unknowns