Fabian Marozsan vs Jurij Rodionov

Highlights

• • Market implies ~32.8% for Rodionov but we estimate ~40%
• • Positive EV of +0.22 on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and our conservative probability estimate
• + Rodionov's larger match sample and higher career win rate support an edge

Cons

• - No head-to-head or up-to-the-minute injury/ranking details in the provided research
• - Some recent mixed results for Rodionov at the Challenger/hard level introduce variance

Details

We find value on Jurij Rodionov as the away player. The market implies Rodionov has ~32.8% chance at 3.05 (1/3.05), but our read of the available profiles suggests a materially higher chance. Rodionov's career sample is larger and his win rate (approximately 59.7% career) is substantially better than Fabian Marozsan's 50% (26-26 in 52 matches). Both players have experience on hard courts, but Marozsan's recent noted results include straight losses at higher-level events which indicate inconsistency when stepping up in opponent level. Rodionov's deeper match sample and stronger overall record lead us to conservatively estimate his true win probability at 40%. At that probability, the market price (3.05) yields positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 3.05 - 1 = +0.22, or +22% ROI). We moderate the projection from Rodionov's raw career win rate because head-to-head, exact rankings, and more granular surface-form detail are not provided, but even a conservative uplift over market-implied probability produces value. Therefore we recommend the away player only because EV is positive at the current widely available price.

Key factors

• • Rodionov has a larger sample and higher career win rate (approx. 43-30) versus Marozsan (26-26)
• • Both have hard-court experience, but Marozsan's recent noted losses at higher-level events suggest inconsistency
• • Market-implied probability for Rodionov (≈32.8%) appears too low relative to his demonstrated performance, creating value