Fabian Marozsan vs Lukas Neumayer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Lukas Neumayer at 3.3 because his career form and experience justify a substantially higher win probability (~45%) than the market-implied ~30%, producing positive EV.
Highlights
- • Neumayer's career win rate (~61.5%) materially stronger than Marozsan's (50%)
- • Current away odds (3.3) imply ~30% chance — we estimate ~45%, yielding +0.485 EV
Pros
- + Clear pricing disconnect between market and player profiles
- + No injury or surface red flags for the away player in provided research
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head or contextual Davis Cup-specific data in the research
- - Home/venue advantage for Marozsan could narrow the gap vs our estimate
Details
We see a clear market pricing disconnect: the book gives Fabian Marozsan a 74.7% implied chance (1.339) while Lukas Neumayer is priced at 30.3% (3.3). From the supplied profiles Neumayer has a stronger career win rate (48-30, ~61.5%) across surfaces and considerably more match experience than Marozsan (26-26, 50.0%). Recent-match snippets show both with losses at high-level events, so there is no evidence of a clear injury or form collapse for Neumayer. Given Neumayer’s superior overall record, surface versatility and absence of negative flags in the research, we estimate Neumayer’s true win probability at ~45%. That is materially above the market-implied ~30% for the away price, creating value. At our estimate EV = 0.45 * 3.3 - 1 = +0.485 (48.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We account for bookmaker margin (vig ~5%) when comparing implied probabilities and conclude the away price offers strong value at the quoted decimal odds. Odds used for EV calculation: 3.3.
Key factors
- • Neumayer’s superior career W-L (48-30 vs 26-26) suggests higher baseline win probability
- • Market implies Marozsan ~74.7% which conflicts with comparative career records
- • No injuries or surface-specific disadvantages reported for Neumayer in the provided research