Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.105) ≈ 90.5%
• • Our estimated true probability for Gettwart ≈ 31.3%, implying required odds ≈ 3.195 for value

Pros

• + We rely on the concrete win-loss data provided for a conservative probability estimate
• + Clear numeric mismatch between market price and observed form makes decision discrete (no value)

Cons

• - Research contains no information on Sarah Boussaffir, which limits model completeness
• - Small sample and limited context (opponent quality, injuries, live conditions) increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.105 implied win probability ≈ 90.5%) to our assessment based solely on the available player data. Fabienne Gettwart's career record in the provided sample is 10-22 (32 matches referenced, win rate 10/32 = 31.3%) with recent losses on hard courts; there is no information provided about Sarah Boussaffir to justify treating Gettwart as a 90%+ favorite. Using Gettwart's observable win rate and recent form, we estimate her true win probability at 31.3%, far below the market-implied 90.5%, which produces a large negative expected value at the current favorite price. To get a profitable bet on Gettwart at our estimated probability would require minimum decimal odds of ~3.195. Because the market price (1.105) implies an unrealistically high probability versus the available performance data, we do not find value on either side using the provided research and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Gettwart career win rate in provided data is 10/32 = 31.3%
• • Recent recorded matches show losses on hard courts (no recent wins listed)
• • Market price implies a 90.5% win chance for Gettwart, which is inconsistent with the available form data