Facundo Bagnis vs Federico Aguilar Cardozo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite price (Bagnis 1.05) offers no value against our estimated win probability (~88%), so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Bookmakers imply ~95% for Bagnis; our estimate ~88%
- • EV at current odds is negative (~-7.6% of stake)
Pros
- + Bagnis has more experience and a stronger overall profile
- + Aguilar Cardozo's win rate is low, reducing upset likelihood
Cons
- - Bagnis' recent form is not dominant — some recent losses weaken a near-certain market price
- - Market price leaves no margin for model uncertainty; small mistakes flip EV negative
Details
We view the current market price (Bagnis 1.05) as overconfident. While Facundo Bagnis is the clear favorite by experience and a better overall record, his recent results are mixed and not dominant; Federico Aguilar Cardozo is inferior on paper but is a clay specialist and can be competitive. The bookmaker-implied probability for Bagnis at 1.05 is ~95%, but after weighing form, surface familiarity, and limited margin for error in tennis, we estimate Bagnis' true win probability around 88%. That makes the current price negative expected value (EV = 0.88 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.076), so we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite at available odds.
Key factors
- • Experience and broader surface exposure favor Bagnis but recent form is inconsistent
- • Aguilar Cardozo is a clay specialist with a poor overall record but can be competitive on clay
- • Market price (1.05) implies near-certainty; our realistic probability is materially lower