Facundo Bagnis vs Federico Aguilar Cardozo

Highlights

• • Bookmakers imply ~95% for Bagnis; our estimate ~88%
• • EV at current odds is negative (~-7.6% of stake)

Pros

• + Bagnis has more experience and a stronger overall profile
• + Aguilar Cardozo's win rate is low, reducing upset likelihood

Cons

• - Bagnis' recent form is not dominant — some recent losses weaken a near-certain market price
• - Market price leaves no margin for model uncertainty; small mistakes flip EV negative

Details

We view the current market price (Bagnis 1.05) as overconfident. While Facundo Bagnis is the clear favorite by experience and a better overall record, his recent results are mixed and not dominant; Federico Aguilar Cardozo is inferior on paper but is a clay specialist and can be competitive. The bookmaker-implied probability for Bagnis at 1.05 is ~95%, but after weighing form, surface familiarity, and limited margin for error in tennis, we estimate Bagnis' true win probability around 88%. That makes the current price negative expected value (EV = 0.88 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.076), so we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite at available odds.

Key factors

• • Experience and broader surface exposure favor Bagnis but recent form is inconsistent
• • Aguilar Cardozo is a clay specialist with a poor overall record but can be competitive on clay
• • Market price (1.05) implies near-certainty; our realistic probability is materially lower