Highlights

• • Barton’s career win rate (~63.6%) substantially higher than Diaz Acosta (~37.0%)
• • Current decimal 2.50 for Barton implies only a 40% chance; our estimate of 62% implies clear value

Pros

• + Significant career performance gap favoring Barton
• + Current market price (2.50) offers a large margin above our fair odds (~1.613)

Cons

• - Surface/venue for the Szczecin match is unspecified in the research and could favor Diaz Acosta
• - Recent form shows losses for both players; short-term form noise and small sample for Diaz Acosta increase volatility

Details

We find value on Hynek Barton (away) because the market prices Facundo Diaz Acosta as a heavy favorite at 1.50 despite a markedly inferior career record and small sample size versus Barton. The research shows Barton has a 49-28 record (77 matches, ~63.6% career win rate) across clay and hard, while Diaz Acosta is 10-17 (27 matches, ~37.0% career win rate) across clay, hard and grass. Both have recent losses, but Barton’s much larger sample and higher overall win percentage indicate a materially higher baseline win probability than the implied book price for 2.50. Conservatively estimating Barton’s true win probability at 62%, the required fair decimal price is ~1.613, well below the available 2.50, producing a positive expected value. We also note uncertainty about surface/venue and some recent form noise for both players, so we use a conservative probability rather than Barton’s raw career win rate. At the current decimal odds of 2.50 the EV = 0.62 * 2.50 - 1 = +0.55 (55% ROI on a 1-unit stake).

Key factors

• • Hynek Barton career record 49-28 (~63.6% win rate) vs Diaz Acosta 10-17 (~37.0%)
• • Much larger sample size and consistency for Barton (77 matches) compared with Diaz Acosta (27 matches)
• • Market favors home Diaz Acosta at 1.50 despite weaker career metrics; current away price 2.50 appears mispriced
• • Both have recent losses, and surface/venue for this Szczecin match is not specified — introduces uncertainty