Facundo Juarez vs Tadeo Meneo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Juarez is the clear favorite but the market price (1.05) overstates his win chances relative to our estimate (~88%), so there is no value to back at current odds.
Highlights
- • Juarez has far more match experience and a materially better win rate
- • Current odds (1.05) imply a win probability higher than our realistic estimate
Pros
- + Strong relative record and experience favor Juarez
- + Both players are on clay, reducing an upset surface factor
Cons
- - Bookmaker has heavily shortened Juarez, leaving no margin for error
- - Limited head-to-head data and small-sample noise could shift the true probability
Details
We estimate Facundo Juarez is the clear favorite based on the provided records: Juarez (28-21 across 49 matches, substantial clay experience) versus Meneo (3-14 across 17 matches). Both players have clay experience, which removes a surface advantage for the underdog. The market price (Juarez 1.05, implied probability 95.24%) requires Juarez to be almost certain to win. Using the available career win rates and recent form, we estimate Juarez's true win probability around 88% — significantly below the market-implied 95.2%. At the current home decimal 1.05 the expected value for backing Juarez is negative (EV = 0.88 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.076), so the book is overpricing the favorite and there is no positive-value bet at available prices. We therefore recommend no bet given the lack of value; a profitable play would require minimum decimal odds of ~1.136 or higher on Juarez to justify our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Career records: Juarez 28-21 (49 matches) vs Meneo 3-14 (17 matches)
- • Surface parity: both have clay experience (no surface advantage for underdog)
- • Market-implied probability (Juarez 1.05 -> 95.24%) exceeds our estimated true win probability