Highlights

• • Rethin implied probability 81.97% vs our estimate 60%
• • EV at current price is strongly negative (-0.268 for a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear value signal: market is too short on the favorite given limited supporting data
• + Conservative estimate avoids taking an obvious negative EV price

Cons

• - We lack any data on the home player (Faiz Nasyam) which prevents identifying value on the underdog
• - Small sample size for Rethin increases uncertainty in our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Rethin (decimal 1.22 => implied ~81.97%) to a conservative estimated win probability based only on the provided player profile. Rethin's 3-5 career record, very small sample size, and recent losses on clay provide limited confidence he is an 82% true favorite, so we estimate his true win probability around 60%. At that estimate the market price (1.22) offers large negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.268), so there is no value on the favorite. Faiz Nasyam has no provided data to justify backing him at 3.90, and even if we inflated his chance relative to implied 18% it would require the market to be massively wrong. Given available information and the current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Rethin is ~81.97% (1.22 decimal) which looks too high given his 3-5 record
• • Small sample size and recent losses on clay lower confidence in a very high implied probability
• • No data provided for Faiz Nasyam to justify backing the underdog at 3.90