Fajing Sun vs Omar Jasika
Tennis
2025-09-03 15:52
Start: 2025-09-04 08:10
Summary
Pick: home
EV: 0.042
Current Odds
Home 2.5|Away 1.685
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Fajing Sun_Omar Jasika_2025-09-04
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge backing the home favorite Fajing Sun at 1.68 based on a 62% estimated win probability versus the market-implied ~59.5%. The value is modest but present given available information.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability 62% vs market 59.5%
- • EV ≈ +4.2% at current odds (1.68)
Pros
- + Market price offers slight value vs our probability estimate
- + Surface and home conditions support the pick
Cons
- - Research provided is sparse (no recent form, injury, or H2H details)
- - Edge is modest; variance can overcome this small advantage
Details
The market price of 1.68 implies a win probability of ~59.5% for Fajing Sun. Given the match on outdoor hard and home status, we estimate a slightly higher true win probability of 62%. That creates value: EV = 0.62 * 1.68 - 1 = +0.042 (4.2% ROI on a 1-unit stake). There is limited additional public information (injuries, recent form, H2H) in the research provided, so our edge is modest and relies on home/surface weighting versus the market-implied line.
Key factors
- • Home advantage on outdoor hard surface
- • Market-implied probability (59.5%) slightly below our estimated true probability (62%)
- • Limited injury/form/H2H data increases uncertainty—edge is modest